ISSN 1003-8280 CN 10-1522/R 中国疾病预防控制中心 主办
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trend of scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province, China from 2012 to 2018, to predict the incidence trend, and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the prevention and control measures of scrub typhus. Methods The data of scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2018 were collected. A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model was used to establish a forecasting model, which was evaluated by comparing the observed and predicted values in 2019, and the incidence of scrub typhus in Guangdong province in 2020 was predicted using the model. Results A total of 33 490 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2018, with the incidence increasing year by year, and the cases mainly occurred in June to October. The incidence was highest in the 50-60 years group; there were more cases in females than in males, and farmers (65.49%) were the dominant occupation. The ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was fitted with the monthly case data; the Bayesian information criterion was 879.36; the residual sequence was white noise sequence according to the Ljung-Box test, and the adjusted R2 value was 0.377. The fitting effect of the model was good. The actual value in 2019 was basically consistent with the predicted value with 95% confidence interval; the model had a good predictive effect. Conclusion The scrub typhus incidence shows an increasing trend year by year in Guangdong province. The main susceptible populations were people aged 50-60 years, females, and farmers. The ARIMA model can be used to predict the changes in scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province well, suggesting that the relevant departments should strengthen the publicity and education of key population and the epidemic prevention and control in the season with high incidence of scrub typhus.
Objective To compare the characteristics of dengue fever epidemic between Ruili and Jinghong in Yunnan province, China, and to provide a basis for the precise prevention and control of dengue fever in the two cities. Methods The information about local and imported cases of dengue fever was collected in Ruili and Jinghong, Yunnan province from 2006 to 2018, and SPSS 22.0 and R 3.6.2 softwares were used for statistical analysis. Results From 2006 to 2018, Ruili reported a total of 3 022 cases of dengue fever, of which 59.13% were imported cases (59.00% were imported from abroad) and 40.87% were local cases. Among 3 923 cases in Jinghong, imported cases accounted for 3.08% (3.01% were imported from abroad), and local cases accounted for 96.92%. The number of imported cases in Ruili was 14.77 times that in Jinghong. The imported cases in both cities were mainly 16 to 45 years old, and mostly from Southeast Asian countries, especially Myanmar. There were statistically significant differences in sex, age, occupation, and the interval from disease onset to diagnosis of either imported or local cases between the two cities (χ2=7.529, 14.169, and 201.686, all P<0.05; χ2=18.342, 43.723, and 557.247, all P<0.001; Mann-Whitney U=75 032.500 and 2 116 735.000, both P<0.001). Conclusion Most of cases of dengue fever are imported in Ruili but local in Jinghong. Authorities of the two cities should strengthen the surveillance of cases of dengue fever, promptly detect, isolate, and treat cases, and take measures to deal with the epidemic in time.